Saturday 3 September 2016

The road to Russia begins

Serbia kicks off 2018 World Cup qualifying on Monday evening vs Ireland in Belgrade and I have no expectations. It's very difficult to feel confident after three consecutive unsuccessful qualifying campaigns and endless disappointment. However, it's also difficult to look at Serbia's squad side by side beside Ireland\s and not see the clear advantage that we have in quality.  That little dilemma is what long suffering Serbian football fans have been wrestling with for years. Why can't we beat teams with less talent than ours? 

In many ways the Irish national team is the polar opposite of Serbia. They don't have many players playing for big clubs but they play together as a team, work hard and leave everything on the pitch for their nation. On the other end, Serbia has players at well respected clubs across Europe but they can never gel as a team and rarely show the same type of fire that the Irish show on the pitch. Ireland has continuity, they have a system and they know how they want to play. That's why they made it out of the group stages at Euro 2016 while we haven't even qualified for a European Championship since 2000. We need to adopt the qualities that they have and mold them together with our talent. Only then will we see consistent results and return to major tournaments on a regular basis. 

This will be Slavoljub Muslin's first competitive game in charge of Serbia. During the three friendlies in May and June, Muslin implemented a new system and showed that he has a clear vision of how he wants Serbia to play. His 3-4-2-1 formation looked very good in the friendly matches vs Israel, Cyprus and Russia. Serbia created plenty of chances while remaining organized defensively but now it's time for the real test. Monday is not a friendly, the intensity will be raised to a whole different level and the team will have to prove that they can play in that system when it matters. 

Muslin is faced with quite a few issues heading into this match. He won't be able to rely on Serbia's midfield rock Nemanja Matic who is suspended for the first three matches. He also can't count on one of Serbia's main attacking weapons Aleksandar Kolarov who is also suspended. Those are two very troubling absences, particularly Matic who brings shape to Serbia's lineup and holds the midfield together. There is no doubt that Muslin has spent many sleepless nights pondering which duo to insert into the central midfield instead of Matic. 

Another major concern for Muslin  is the lack of playing time and match fitness that many Serbian players are dealing with right now. Most European leagues have just started their seasons and the majority of our players are either sitting on the bench  or not playing a full 90 minutes. Serbia's top striker Aleksandar Mitrovic hasn't even seen the pitch yet due to suspension and injury while starting  goalkeeper Vladimir Stojkovic only found a new club last week.  This is only going to compound Muslin's problems and make it even more difficult to choose the starting XI.

Serbia usually does well against British/Irish sides and their style of play. The main reason behind this is  that we have big, strong players that are good in the air and can neutralize the long balls. We tend to struggle against sides that run at us with a lot of pace and keep the ball on the ground and British/Irish sides aren't exactly known for that type of play. The cautious and physical play that they're known for plays to our strengths. In recent years we have played in qualifying groups with Wales (won home and away), Scotland (drew away, won at home) and Northern Ireland (won home and away). Hopefully that trend continues. 

  I think that Monday's game will most likely end in a draw or a tight Serbian victory. It will be a very hard fought match and the key will be defending set pieces and not getting caught on the counter. Ireland is very dangerous and hard to break down so we can't afford to miss our chances. At this point I am not interested in how we play. If we bunker up like Greece during Euro 2004 and squeeze out a ugly 1-0 win I will be ecstatic. Results are the only thing that matters, playing pretty football is great but if we lose it means nothing. Wins and losses are the only thing that is going to determine if Serbia goes to Russia or freezes to death somewhere in Siberia while trying to get there. 

Lineup prediction:

Rajkovic, Ivanovic, Mitrovic, Rajkovic, Mladenovic, Rukavina,Fejsa, Maksimovic, Kostic, Tadic, Pavlovic.   

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